两岸申请加入CPTPP 中国学者直言:台湾获准可能性比中国大多了

2021.09.23 14:13 cloctor 两岸申请加入CPTPP 中国学者直言:台湾获准可能性比中国大多了

两岸申请加入CPTPP 中国学者直言:台湾获准可能性比中国大多了
「跨太平洋伙伴全面进步协定」(CPTPP)以日本为主导,加拿大、澳洲、纽西兰、新加坡、马来西亚、越南、汶莱、墨西哥、智利及秘鲁等11个国家加入。(AFP)
在中国提出申请加入跨太平洋伙伴全面进步协定(CPTPP)一週以后,台湾也证实已经提交加入CPTPP的申请。对此,美国马里兰马里兰洛约拉大学商学院教授丁弘彬认为,台湾选择此时申请,一方面是先前已经做了基本功,另一方面是看到接下来会有麻烦。而中国金融学者贺江兵更直言,台湾获准加入CPTPP的可能性显然比中国大得多。
《自由亚洲电台》报导,对于台湾选择在中国提出申请之后马上也向CPTPP提出加入申请,丁弘彬认为,台湾选择这个时机,一方面是因为台湾已经做了基本功,另一方面就是现有的成员国加上美国可能对台湾改善贸易政策的努力有做了肯定,觉得台湾应该现在就提出申请,否则接下来会有麻烦。
入会条件对台湾较有利
报导提及中国在宣布提出申请后不久,便以检验出介壳虫为由,突然暂停进口台湾释迦和莲雾,今年二月也曾以虫害停止进口台湾凤梨,有学者就认为,中国时常动用经济手段处理政治问题,对于申请加入CPTPP不利。
而中国金融学者贺江兵在分析中更直言,台湾获准加入CPTPP的可能性显然比中国大得多,他认为,CPTPP对申请国的要求要比世界贸易组织(WTO)更严格,申请国必须是完全市场化的经济体,对国有企业不能有补贴,这些台湾更有资格加入。
相对中国宣布提出申请时,令许多国家感到意外,报导则表示,许多国家已经对中国的加入作出表态,像是澳洲已经表示,中国必须恢復与澳方高官的接触以及解决贸易争端,否则澳洲将反对中国加入。
中国阻挠难保台湾能顺利入会
不过尽管有些观察人士对台湾申请加入CPTPP感到振奋,但报导分析,考虑到台湾的政治地位,观察人士对台湾能否顺利加入仍有所保留。报导指出,近来许多西方国家反覆强调支持台湾有意义的参与国际组织,但台湾要参与国际事务仍遇到许多瓶颈,丁弘彬也说,除了中国频频设立障碍外,台湾加入国际组织受阻可能也和不少国家的漠然态度有关,当台湾任何时候想要重新加入都是个困难过程,因为对大部分事不关己的国家来说,许多都是抱持着多一事不如少一事的心态。

RTI 2021-09-23 陈文蔚
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